Liberal Leadership: who the money's on

As we enter the home stretch to this weekend's long anticipated Liberal Leadership Convention, I've checked in with the futures markets and online wagering sites to see who the money says will be the next party leader. You may recall from a previous posting from this year's election that futures markets are typically far more accurate predictors of events - from sporting events to elections and everything in between - than even the most comprehensive polls or expert opinions.

According to Pinnaclesports.com of the Netherlands, the odds as of today are:

Michael Ignatieff - 1.79:1
Bob Rae - 3.68:1
Stephen Dion - 4.73:1
Gerard Kennedy - 21:1
All Others: >200:1

At Dublin-based Intrade.com, the odds for each candidate are reflected in their Intrade stock value. Here are the last closing price for each, followed in parentheses by the high and low since the campaign began:

Michael Ignatieff - $65.00 ($40-65)
Bob Rae - $30.00 ($20-38)
Stephen Dion - $20.00 ($8.50-25)
Gerard Kennedy - $5.00 ($5-25)

I've searched for the same figures from UBC's Election Stock Exchange (http://esm.ubc.ca) but the site doesn't appear to be up anymore. In the January election their results weren't perfect indicators, but they were quite good.