My predictions for 2006

Before I get to my predictions for the new year, I should say that a number of my clients have vested interests in some of these predictions coming true. With that said, don’t discount them as publicity fluff, but rather as indications of the belief I have in my clients’ business models. There….take that.

• The Y1C Crisis – While I highly doubt we’re going to run out of oil in the next 12 months, I do think the days of $1.00/liter gasoline are here to stay. In the biggest crisis to hit Canada since Y2K, watch the gasoline companies scramble to update their price signs to reflect the new, three figure reality…or start pricing gasoline in full cents.


• PIPEDA Bites – It came in like a lion in 2004 but since then has looked far more like a lamb. Expect this year to see federal and provincial privacy commissioners really start to hold companies accountable for privacy breaches…and by accountable I mean more than a couple of bad PR days.


• Convergence Resurgence – BCE’s divestiture of Bell Globe Media hammered one more nail in the coffin of Jean Monty’s convergence vision, but I wouldn’t write it off too soon. Don’t be surprised to see at least one or two big mergers, involving at least two of Monty’s convergence pillars: communications (Rogers, Telus?) and a content (Corus, Chum, CanWest?)


• The New, New Wireless Wave – This is almost more a hope than a prediction, but I do see 2006 as the year that, finally, wireless providers come out with an affordable, all-in-one device that delivers phone, data, MP3s, TV, radio, internet, universal remote control, voice recorder, calendaring, and maybe even a clock.


• Green: The New Color of Money – Even with natural gas and oil prices skyrocketing this year, the misconception still exists that green, renewable energy products are only environmental in value, and only for the select few that can afford them. Look for 2006 to see a change in mindset – especially with Ontarians seeing more natural gas hikes in January – with the realization that renewable technologies actually cost less…and you get to save the world.


• VoIP Goes Mainstream – With Vonage putting their feet to the fire, incumbent telcos have sheepishly unveiled their VOIP offerings, although you wouldn’t know it from their marketing. It makes sense, but this year Canadians won’t have a choice but to see how much money they stand to save with VOIP, and telcos will have to respond.


• Judgment Day for Satellite Radio – If the technology gift guides are any indication, satellite radios will be under the tree for virtually every technophile in the country this year. Don’t be so sure. Even with the might of Howard Stern, I’m not convinced Canadians will take too well to paying for something they’ve grown accustomed to getting for free. Plus, where will we tune in to hear those annoying Goodyear ads?


• Taking Responsibility for IT – The debate around how to regulate and govern information technology will continue once again, but two things will change. One is that corporate officers and directors will start getting nervous about the risks and potential liabilities their firms’ IT systems represent. The other is that software glitches are going to get more serious.


• I Won’t Shoot Another Eagle – A shameless plug I must admit, but last year I shot two bona fide eagles. I don’t see this happening again any time in the near future, much less in the coming year.


• And last but not least...More Reality TV!